7performance questions(weekly)

7 Performance Questions-
1. What will i improve on this week?
Trade very technically.

2. What was i most proud of this week?
Multiple paper traes on the GBP/JPY, namely the triangle breakdown. Multiple 30pip trades planned(but not taken due to work...these next two weeks i am off work so will delve fully into trading).

3. What was my biggest accomplishment this week?
My GBP/JPY triangle breakout trade.

4. What have i done to get closer to my life goal this week?
More experience with documentation. Lots of visualization.

5. What was hard for me this week and why?
Confluence of work, my kid and trading conflicted, i saw multiple entries setting up, but was not allowed to capitalize in part due to being able to manage a trade.

6. What was my biggest waste of time this week?
Can't say anything.

7.What did i do this week that made me ashamed?
I had a trade i that i did a number of things wrong on. Partly because i missed most of the week due to class and work, the entry was jumped, the exit with loss was drawn out.

Hurricane and time of week/month on top of the big move are my reasonings for my thoughts on the U$D giving some back today/monday. We shall see.

Missed this one i had set up

Here's one I had set up, but my kid was running AMOK...so I was not able to manage it.
Wedge/flag in the 1hr/30/15min, higher low, trendline break, then retest with entry.


It's friday, I expect profit taking and people to reduce positions for the weekend.

yesterdays coorelation

this shows the majors will be enough to trade and have good coorelaton

GBP/JPY Breakout

Here's that breakout I was looking for. I was napping(4:30-5:40pmHI time), so missed the trade, but it played out nicely.
From the break at 198.88-198.58, that is a range of 30pips in 21minutes. Note my entry would be on the retest and exits on the macd extreme 1min cross or rising stochastics. In actuality that may have been a trade from 198.83 to 198.68(67 being the DS1 i would likely have taken some profits) a 15pip move if i was being conservative. Remember from my earlier example 15pips is all I need a day.

Woot-

My class for work is over so I am able to devote my focus once again to Trading successfully.
woot.



Here is a shot of the BEAST- i am leaning towards a downside bias as this thing keeps creeping down. Note the 5min box chart with a 10x3pip box. Lots of support, so this bad boy will not break right away, likely leading to a few range trades within this triangle.

Took a BEAST news trade.
ENTRY short @ 215.00
Stopped out @ 208.00
swing low @ 199.84 before i stopped out. That's a profit of +36pips. Hmm. Stopped out at 7pips profit. Kind of lame. I'd usually lock in some profits at +15 pips, but this is the BEAST so
I gave it more room. For BEAST scalps I think I am going to consider 25pips profit.

Here's a shot of the Emini S&P 500, this is the spot contract

Here's the triple bottom. I didn't take this one either, my biased view of triples...took effect. Made me sit it out, i should have noticed the 3 part entry which also had a fibonacci entry as well. The box chart showed as well. Note the small risk to reward ratio. Also note we were coming into IFO news which was low and spiked 100pips in 8 minutes after this chart. Again lock 15pips in then let the rest run while moving up stop as news came in.
Summary- No trade taken, but lessons learned.

Two missed trades.
This class is affecting my trading due to rest and studying. First one is a trade based on support at m1, time of day(0720 London open), that would have been scalp or 5pips then let the rest run to 15pips or a ma or stoch cross. The second trade is based on the point and figure chart, double bottom, a entry could have also been made 7min later on a fibonacci reversal. Trade would lock 15pips in then let the rest break even.

GBP news trade

entry 203.48
exit 203.12

+36


boy now i'm really tired ...nye nye.

Long week...

"A man can be as great as he wants to be. If you believe in yourself and have the courage, the determination, the dedication, the competitive drive and if you are willing to sacrifice the little things in life and pay the price for the things that are worthwhile, it can be done." V. Lombardi




I'm pretty pooped out this week with multiple fires, class, the market
and my kid with endless energy.

Here's a shot of the VIX from yahoo.
Note we're below 20 with a lower high. Bullsih for the U$D.
I'm informally watching the markets tonight, I may trade the NY session, but there is a good chance I'll sleep it out. I'm pretty pooped out, my trading gets sloppy when I am too tired so I am just messing around at work and got a few charts up. Before I get some rest.

I'm going to try to take the first 2 weeks of september off from work. I got Guru Crafty Dog coming in on the 5th we're going to shoot the new dvd Kali Tudo2, and possibly work on Dogzillas dvd series. The Pros vs Joes has got me somewhat excited, as well as the IFL fight circuit thing. We'll see what the deal is when Crafty Dog comes into town. My cardio needs work, I am definatelly raising the bar this week to be ready for Crafty.
With leave from work I hope to get a few more sessions in the market. Hopefully I can meet up with OahuFx group on sunday, or even durng an Asian session. I also want to go to the ForexExpo in LV, meet some of the vendors, see what's going on in the forex world, talk to other traders, meet some of the 'gurus' and maybe even get photos with forex bikini girls.

On a hardware/software note- I installed another gb of ram on this laptop which seems to help a little. I still need to get that intermarket heat map up to give me a quick tool aside from my Tom Yeoman intermarket meter to gauge the various currencices. I definately need additional computers to get a better gauge of the markets as a whole, i want to run a radar type screen with atleast the majors, and demo accounts to trade.

This week i got a few nice paper trades in...i am a little closer to my goal. Becoming a competent trader on multiple levels.

I can't wait to leave the fire department. Being Captain really drains on me, at times baby sitting grown men, doing reports and getting along(did i say in general i prefer a life of a hermit? not always but in general). I say "no" to 25 more years of this.

Leverage. Motivation. Consistency.
Analyze. Plan. Implement. Evaluate.


to be the Best you got to beat the best

Beast Beakout PARTII

Here's a recap of that Beast. 204.20 to 201.90. That's a whopping 230pips. Again paper traded. But practicing the skill. Days like this remind me i wish i wasn't so tired from work and life so i could watch the action from London to NY. We knew a breakout was going to occur, this thing was very coiled for some time. Then we had UK news, making the GBP stagnant, while the JPY gained strength. My GBP/USD trade got killed by the Beast once it brokeout, but i managed a breakeven.
Again, paper trade...but soon, we're coming up the ranks. Imagine a standard 2lot trade, take the break, run to the s3...scale 1 out there, then add more lots at the second break down.

This is why I am of the belief my monetary goals can be attained.

Beast Breakout

Check this breakout. Paper trade.
The hour shows the flag/triangle the 1min shows the break and retest. Perfect textbook trade...ran to the daily s3. 110 or so pips in 8-9min

I was stopped out at 15points, due to not being able to manage this.
If I did manage this my likey exits would have been that extreme macd cross with the higher low.
Also note the 800sma in relation to the EUR/USD 30min timeframe. 21-22days away.

Two trades
took a long late, in retrospect i was chasing price and ended up buying at resistance. More importantly my timing was bad. Stoch was rolling down(1min) and we were 20 or so minutes out from the crude oil inventories that ended up being incredibly bullish for the dollar.

Trade1
EUR/USD
entry long = 1.4761
exit = 1.438
loss = -23 sl blown on spike after release

Trade2
note- we were coming off triple bottom, seemed the usd was falling, 3min before the oil inventories there was a bearish usd spike(possibly hedge fund sucking the suxors in) meaning up for e/u. Then wham.
Note the currencies got a spke, but were slow to repsond for direction of the surplus of oil inventories. It was an obvious bullish sign for the USD.

entry short = 1.4731
exit1 = 1.4716(15pip goal)
exit2 = market close or sl moved to 1.4716



Note the pivots as well as the triple bottom break on my box chart cooincided with my 5/8cross on the 1min, making my entry.

The Holy Grail of Indicators

Talking to a friend who has some trading experience a few days ago i seemed to get the feeling that he believed their is an ultimate indicator.
What some people fail to remember is that price dictates indicators. Price action leads...everything else follows.
Trading a naked chart is a very core concept that every trader should be capable of doing. Taking a trade solely cause an indicator says so is foolish. When to take the indicators as signals ties in to price action then levels of support and resistance. Understanding price action and market perception is very important.
Another critical concept is to trade the strong vs weak.
Not a pair with near strength to each other. The disparity will give direction.

Why is one of the first questions i ask myself what is strong today?
To find market direction. Market direction and price action may differ, but it is important to identify both. Part of this formula is to find if the U$D or the JPY is leading. Why JPY? becasue it is the cheap money/carry trade...hedge funds take USD to borrow JPY to buy US equities then turn a profit and convert back.

I need to reread the book Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy now that I am consuming my self with trading currency. The version i read was from 1991 so was dated. I actually remember saving a multi page word document with notes cause I borrowed it from the local library(no one had read it...lol). Amazon currently has 2 used for ten dollars and change. I just checked amazon and he has a newer version of the book.

I had a couple of losers last night. I will post them later.

I would also like to mention I had some interesting emails on my post concerning my Business Plan and compound interest.
I'd like to repeat my 2yr plan which takes priority of becoming a competent and successful trader with making money a secondary effect. Some people misunderstood the 3yr Business Plan and it's relationship to my 2yr short term goals. The short term goals are centered around being a successful and competent trader. The Business Plan merely dictates and helps me measure and gauge my profit along with how i must adjust my leverage at a rational rate so that I can feel comfortable trading several hundred 100mini lots and not be inappropriately leveraged or emotionally attached. The 3yr plan i posted was merely an example, but the core of it was small gains averaged out like 15pips a day is a good measurement of success, thus reducing many pitfalls such as over trading or entering at the wrong times.


2yr short term goals
1. To trade for a living
2. To be able to have a number of systems that can trade any market whether trending or ranging. Scalp, Spot, Swing, Position. knowledge of all and used appropriately accoring to the conditions.
3. To be able to identify, transition and employ what type of trading system is necessary with in a few minutes of studying a chart. Along with the money management necessary.
4. To understand the fundamentals that cause coorelation and those which move the markets while being able to capitalize on them.

Another version of the 3yr Business Plan showing variations in % risked and amount used for income. I have more in my accounts, but this helps illustrate compound interest and scalability.

starting balance 5k
1st yr - 3% max risk - $212000 acct - 0 income
2nd yr - 2% max risk - $2.16m acct - $265k income
3rd yr - .5% max risk - $5.3m acct - $273

Again this is merely an illustration of compound interest I use it to help me stay on track.

Beast PreLondon

Here's how the GBP/JPY played out, 205.15 to 203.87. Easy trade ran from m2 to m0 and then some. Again didn't take it, uh nookie took preference. doh.

unfolding GBP

bah i missed that entry here it is, i'm looking for a reentry

GBP/USD moving...

Here's the Beast, i watched this bad boy unfold- no trade taken, i stepped away for some errands, check the down trend on the 1hr, the 00, and 205.04-.06 was a pivot point s nmber depending on what pivot theory used.




GBP/USD making a move.
News coming out tonight, but the 1.8500 area is major support on the daily/weekly time frames.
This could turn into a up move, but it would give some serious signals. My chart is showing 1.8512 as my s3.
We will see what happens on this bad boy.

Swing low on that eur/usd ended up being 89, so the short from 24 to 89 would be 35pips(not possible to catch all). I'd likely have entered at 21 on the 1min, using the box as my stop, exited half my position on 15pips, move the rest to break even, then exited the rest at the 5/8ma cross on the 1min at 98 or the second 1min macd cross that followed there after at the same price as it flirted with the 00 round number. That would have netted me 23pips, not a bad scalp.

bah this thing is going to move 50pips maybe m2 which is at 65 the 1hr swing low.
I could look for a reentry, but i'm going back to sleep it's 0413.

NY open-
EUR/USD
hmmm missed this scalp. I was watching it but it went a little past the price i was thinking(2-4pips)... i was lookng for the short at 21, it hit 24 on my chart. The temporary swing low was 11 on my charts.


here's a shot of it evolving...it looks like it will make a break out, and we are really oversold on the euro at this time...thus my hesitation on shorting this as we seem due for possibly givng some back.

Missed this one. omg. Entry- off previous days fib, macd cross and off 200ma on the 15min

Calling it a night. I got class tomorrow. I want to come back for the NY session, but I got to get my sleep for class.

Well that sucks. I waited for a break and retest, bought on stochastics rolling up on my 1min at 96.40 which was 3points from the swing high, i should have noted the bollinger bands on the 15min as we were outside, i felt i was buying into strength but in actuality bought at resistance. Killed my trade at 97.93 the 55ma on my 5min. There were several times i could have gotton out on confluences for a scalp with leverage to clear my trade. Ended up missing several of the exits for a average out with size.

-47pips

Here's a point and figure chart of the AUD/JPY what i currently see...note the purple hash mark indicating price repetitivelly hitting this area, the Xand O point and figure chart looks good for a short, but the AUD looks very strong right now and we are currently at the DAX opening.

AUD/JPY
The aud is pretty bullish at the moment.
I'm looking for a break of this triangle and a retest to get in long on the aussie dollar.
Here's a shot of what i see right now.
note Daily R1 is 96.22(on my fxdd charts)
profit target looks like 97.56, resistance coming in at 97.00
My spread is 2 right now, i could scalp this thing, but we're coming into the DAX open right now, hence danger.

Various websites

Fans this is a great site for finding market coorelation and understanding which race horse we want to follow- weakest to strongest. This site gives hourly %.

http://www.mataf.net/en/forex/trading/correlation/table/


Here is the site for weather

http://www.noaa.gov/

remember weather can greatly affect the USD, especially commodities like oil and crops.
Fear plays a great part.

As time goes on I want to cover basket trades on U$D strength or weakness.

Business Plan

To demonstrate how my goals are very conservative here is a generic 3yr plan.
This will demonstrate how a conservative approach on how compound interest can turn into a huge amount. The focus is 15pips a day. In this case the 15 pip goal a day stays consistant, but the value of the pips changes over time to match the 5% risk per trade the first year, 1% risk per trade the second year, .5% risk per trade the 3rd year.
Risk per trade is the amount of money I leverage per trade and am willing to lose per trade to make a gain.

Generic 3yr plan.
starting balance $5k
daily goal 15pips @ 5% risk
monthly salary = 33% profits taken for cost and living expenses
profits = trading account

1st yr @ 5% risk per trade = 532k trading acct, 258k income
2nd yr @ 1% risk per trade = 1.285mi trading acct, 290k income
3rd yr @ .5% risk per trade = 1.1mi trading acct, 255k income

The 250k pls a year is to put me in the top1% of earned incomes. Basically more or less, in actuality I do not plan on withdrawing even 30k the first year as I want my trading account to grow exponentially early to allow me to lower risk faster.

Note the goal of this post is to demonstrate a conservative approach to risk can allow one to trade safely with measurable goals yet make an enormous amount of money if compounded over time. It is a given some days I will make more pips and some days less pips, but all in all a step by step approach will win the day. Note I still am aiming for 50pips a day averaged out over a month. The 15pip goal was to demonstrate small appreciable goals the turtle makes beats the hare.

Short Term Goals(2yrs)

1. To trade for a living
(yes it is doable at this point, but i need to build more wealth to let compound interest take over- jack in the box .99 burgers is not a living, as well as let my forex skill get to an elite level)
Being able to quit the fire department with confidence because i'm averaging 20k a month from trading, with 200k in my trading account. Eventually a few million in my trading account. Again money is relative, pip tally with accuracy is what it eventually comes down to.

2. To be able to have a number of systems that can trade any market whether trending or ranging.

3. To be able to identify, transition and employ what type of trading system is necessary with in a few minutes of studying a chart. Along with the money management necessary.

4. To understand the fundamentals that cause coorelation and those which move the markets while being able to capitalize on them. To trade baskets or locate the right horse in a moving market.

5. To always strive to improve on my self, be it inner or outer game. Be it my trading systems, psychological drive, or anything necessary to make me a better trader or person. To always understand to be the best you have to beat the best and do what the rest will not.



Plan(2yr)-
My plan is to continue to trade intraday, logging 3-6hours a day following or studying the markets 5days a week.
Next year i my 35th birthday, I have had this goal of retiring from the fire department come my 35th birthday for years...
I will not force this goal as it seems to be in conflict with my higher goal of being a better trader. If i focus on money my trading is not as profitable due to a variety of reasons- money management, over trading, inaccuracy.
Instead i will focus on pip tally.

How will i know i have attained my short term goal?
I will have 6months of 1000-2500pips a month. All trades will be documented. I will be very organized as it is my business. Screenshot every trade. Reasons for set ups, entries, exits, porfit targets, news, etc.

How will i feel?
I will feel wonderful, an electric charge will run thru my body providing me with a smile knowing i can trade any market from any where and be profitable.

What will i do?
I will leave the fire department. Then let my wealth build to an enormous amount as I will live humbly for the first 2-3years i trade for a living. When i get to the 3million dollar mark i will begin reducing my exposure and leverage. When i get to the 5million mark i will know i have arrived. Reaching the 10illion dollar mark is my 10yr goal(in reality trading well is more important as money is relative).
Reducing my leverage and size will allow me to continue to grow in wealth, but protect myself.

What may my day be like when i trade for a living?
5pm-6pm cat nap
6pm-11pm European session
11pm-2am cat nap
2am-6am NY session, wrap up documentation.
6am-10am sleep, eat
11am market scan of NY close

1130am-5pm play/teach with my son, go to the beach, play video games, what ever i feel like.




Of course if schedule dictates errands i can take more time off. But the heart of it this will be my schedule for years. So be it. Put in the work. Reap the rewards. Trading is fun.

7 Performance Questions

1. What will i improve on next week?
I will work on taking profits and locking half of my spot trades at 15pips.

2. What was i most proud of this week?
My increasing ability to locate, identify and pull the trigger on trades that made 100plus pip moves.

3. What was my biggest accomplishment this week?
Same as 3, ability to indetify ahead of time moves that may play out.

4. What have i done to get closer to my life goal this week?
Put in 30plus hours watching and checking charts, setting up plays and becoming the trader i envision.

5. What was hard for me this week and why?
Chasing price and bad money management. Then not scalping the move as it profits, instead letting winners turn into big losers.

6. What was my biggest waste of time this week?
I ended up missing a few sessions, due to not being rested, so i napped thru PreLondon, while i should have napped in the afternoon so i was fresh. Being fresh has made a difference, i do notice i have lost a lot of trades and begin over trading as i tire. This week was better in that when tired i allowed myself to nap or sleep.

7.What did i do this week that made me ashamed?
Bad money management, due to fear of not making my 35birthday goal, so over leveraging to build my dwindling account. I will work on accuracy, when the accuracy is good i will leverage selectively. Also a trade i had on at work, i was highly leveraged but did not have a stop ready, unfortunately an alarm came in...long story short i was $600 in profit at the apex of the trade, but because i had to put a hasty profit target and stop in i ended up losing big on the trade.

That earlier shot was one of as the trade was unfolding, here is another shot with signals from various systems. note the red edit pen showing the bottom and then breakout.

I had a similar trade like this on the euro 5hours earlier, and unfortunately i missed the entry though i was waiting for that trade to line up for 3hours. Another 100pip plus trade. wtf...
anyways i am reassured in that my analyzation skills are improving as my trades line up, then continue to make 30, 50, even 100pip trades intraday.
This reinforces my dream and belief that day in and day out I can attain the skill to make 50pips a day.
What is 50pips?
Pip size is relative. Consistant pips, Pip tally and accuracy is what counts.
In reality it means making $5k a day is nothing. $5k a day at this point is a huge amount, but using 100-200k account, $5k a day is easily attainable with money management rules in place that keep me from losing excessive amounts.

$1k a day is my short term goal...by my 35th birthday next November 06. But, again money amount is not what i am focusing on at this point, as the money is a benefit of good trading.

My goal for this coming week is to make 30pips a day. Money is relative, consistancy, pip tally and accuracy are what counts.

Triple/Quad bottom in USD/JPY the other day. This would have netted me 120+ pips, but i got stopped out at +.5pip. In retrospect i caught +20 pips or so, but it had to breathe as we encountered the 55ma and a pivot. Getting stopped out after a number of trades that were winners is somewhat annoying...i will be locking in 15pips from now on on half my trade. Here's a shot of that trade.

"I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all i have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. " James Rogers- in Market Wizards

What does this mean?
Risk vs Reward
What are the risks? what are the rewards?

This is what this game is about. What game? EVERY game. The game of foreign exchange currencies...the game of fighting. everything and nothing. 1:1 risk:reward is not worth it if the ratio of wins:losses is 1:1. At the minimum 2:1 for a C level trade.

Well the U$D has made a huge run. I was able to catch a few scraps. But i am waiting for a short consolidation, for a good entry into U$D strength. Buying on support, selling on resistance. I missed that NZD/USD. Thats 500pips, but i got stopped out at the top before the big U$D move. In retrospect my fundamentals for the trade were on the right side, and daily technicals lined up. I should have widened my stop and or lightened my size to stay in longer. AUD/USD same thing.
At this moment i am looking for a retracement this week and look for further follow through using point and figure...possibly a 50-100pip box.

Without documentation there is no learning curve

Things i will focus on this week are:

*trade plan

*trading naked price action

*trading micro lots to focus on pips and accuracy...this is disposable income

*intraday getting out when price action says to moveon.com

*swing trades using a micro to mini lot to allow a maximum 2x dollar cost averaging exiting with 1-2pips plus cost.

*forextester 30min everyday

*Post every trade, have the ability to justify each trade. winners and losers. No fishing for reasons of each trade, each trade must be justified before taken, including sl, profit, exits, adjustments.

aug
CAD/JPY long 103.97
exit 104.43

profit +46

rb entry aug6/ exit aug7(3pm HI)
slow on the exit, i should have noted the stall at the daily m3...as well as time of day for volume(it was closing time), i ended up giving 15-25pips from the swing high..which currenlty appears to be the swing low with CAD/JPY making another run for the high.

PipMonsters Adventures

This is Pipmonsters Phoneix... a documentation of his adventures in Pipland. This blog will document and follow his work in the forex and financial markets.
Documenting his trades, good and bad. Tally of pips, and track his progress to becoming a high level trader.
It will also help hold the course, noting goals of the inner and outer game. It may even contain shameless plugs of Pipmonsters life outside of trading including his little-monster Thor and the adventures of KahunaDog of Dogbrothers.com