Wednesday, August 20, 2008

The Holy Grail of Indicators

Talking to a friend who has some trading experience a few days ago i seemed to get the feeling that he believed their is an ultimate indicator.
What some people fail to remember is that price dictates indicators. Price action leads...everything else follows.
Trading a naked chart is a very core concept that every trader should be capable of doing. Taking a trade solely cause an indicator says so is foolish. When to take the indicators as signals ties in to price action then levels of support and resistance. Understanding price action and market perception is very important.
Another critical concept is to trade the strong vs weak.
Not a pair with near strength to each other. The disparity will give direction.

Why is one of the first questions i ask myself what is strong today?
To find market direction. Market direction and price action may differ, but it is important to identify both. Part of this formula is to find if the U$D or the JPY is leading. Why JPY? becasue it is the cheap money/carry trade...hedge funds take USD to borrow JPY to buy US equities then turn a profit and convert back.

I need to reread the book Intermarket Analysis by John Murphy now that I am consuming my self with trading currency. The version i read was from 1991 so was dated. I actually remember saving a multi page word document with notes cause I borrowed it from the local library(no one had read it...lol). Amazon currently has 2 used for ten dollars and change. I just checked amazon and he has a newer version of the book.



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